Senator Evan Bayh’s resignation weakens Democrats before elections. New calculations reduce party’s hopes of retaining Senate control as mood shifts.
Chris McGreal in Washington guardian.co.uk, Monday 15 February 2010 19.53 GMT Article history
The Democrats today suffered a further blow in the runup to the midterm Congressional elections after another of the party's senators, Evan Bayh of Indiana, announced he will stand down.
The resignation greatly weakens the Democrats' chances of holding on to the seat, which will now become a prime target of the Republican campaign to win back control of the Senate in November.
Bayh, a former state governor who was considered a possible vice-presidential running mate for Barack Obama, denied that his decision not to run again after 12 years in the Senate was prompted by the declining popularity of the Democrats amid continuing popular disillusionment over the economy.
But it will contribute to the perception that the party is on the retreat as he becomes the fifth Democratic party senator to stand down, while others are fighting to retain seats that they won four years ago.
Bayh, 54, had until recently been favoured to retain his seat. Opinion polls showed that he remained personally popular with Indiana voters, after winning re-election in 2006 with 60% of the vote, and he had a large election campaign fund put at about $13m.
But Bayh’s standing had eroded recently amid a wider backlash against the Democrats, principally driven by the continuing economic depression, that cost the party what had been considered the safe Senate seat for Massachusetts last month.
Bayh said that his desire to serve in Congress had “waned”. He denied that he was leaving because of the Democrats’ declining popularity and instead blamed the frustration of partisan political gridlock.
“There is too much partisanship and not enough progress – too much narrow ideology and not enough practical problem-solving. Even at a time of enormous challenge, the peoples’ business is not being done,” he said. The Democrats are defending a 59-41 majority in the Senate after losing the Massachusetts seat.
Until the Massachusetts upset, Democratic strategists believed that three or four of the party’s 18 seats up for election in November might be vulnerable.
But the loss of what had been considered a liberal stronghold, and the political energy that has injected into the Democrats’ opponents – both Republican loyalists and those activists, such as within the Tea Party movement, with a strong dislike of Obama – has changed the equation.
The Cook Political Report, a widely respected assessor of Congressional elections, says that two of the 18 Democratic seats up for grabs are definite Republican wins, five are too close to call and three others are vulnerable.
The loss of all 10 seats that the Republicans have a chance of winning would hand them control of the Senate.
The Cook report recently moved Bayh’s seat to the vulnerable list. Among the other Democrats fighting to hold on to their seats is the party’s leader in the Senate, Harry Reid.
Four other Democratic senators and six Republicans have so far announced they will not seek re-election.
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